Building Predictive Signals Without Overfitting

Signal models often look perfect in backtests and fail in production. Use walk-forward tests and degradation alerts.

Validation model

Separate train, validation, and shadow-production windows. Never tune on live performance data.

Guardrails

Define automatic cool-off states when confidence collapses or slippage rises above limits.

Operations

Track precision, false positives, and opportunity cost together, not just win rate.